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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 07 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ROSE 1.1 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.52 (3 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity sw ...
Sunday, 06 September 15
AUTOMATION AND TECHNOLOGY IS CERTAINLY PART OF THE SOLUTION FOR IMPROVING PERFORMANCE AND EFFICIENCY TO MAKE THE MINE OPERATIONS MORE PROFITABLE, HOWEVER............ - LUKE JALSEVAC
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Luke Jalsevac, Director, Busines ...
Sunday, 06 September 15
THE CAPE SIZE INDEX ROSE 10.83 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI, the Baltic exchange's main sea freight index, which tracks rates for ships carrying dry bulk commodities, declined o ...
Saturday, 05 September 15
DRY BULK MARKET MAY SUFFER NOW, BUT IS BOUND FOR A RECOVERY THANKS TO A LIMITED FUTURE FLEET GROWTH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The slow increase of dry bulk tonnage growth this year could turn into a solid indicator of the market’s future prospects. According to a rec ...
Friday, 04 September 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION FOR THE W/E AUGUST 29, UP SLIGHTLY; FALL 4.5 PERCENT Y-Y: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.7 million shor ...
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Showing 2831 to 2835 news of total 6871 |
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Planning Commission, India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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