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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 09 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOSE GROUND ON SLOWING DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.92 (-4.52%) per t ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECLINING TREND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
GANGAVARAM PORT IN INDIA DISCHARGES RECORD 112,599 MT OF STEAM COAL IN 24 HOURS
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, an all weather, multipurpose port with water depth up-to 21 meters, capable of handling fully laden Super Cap ...
Monday, 07 September 15
THE MINE OF THE FUTURE WILL HAVE ONLY TWO EMPLOYEES, A MAN AND A DOG - SCOTT MCGOWAN
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Scott Mcgowan, Director, Global ...
Monday, 07 September 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 16 DELIVERY CLOSED US CENTS 25 LOWER COMPARED TO Q4' 15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.73 per MT (-1.68%) month over month to US$ 42.65 per mt. The sw ...
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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