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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 04 September 15
GOVERNORS WILL HAVE THE POWER TO REVOKE MINERS' PERMITS: ENERGY MINISTRY - JG
Starting Oct. 1, Indonesia's governors will lawfully become "executors" in revoking the licenses of miners that fail to secure a &quo ...
Thursday, 03 September 15
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO REVISE HBA METHODOLOGY
COALspot.com: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) in process to revise Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) and expected to complete b ...
Thursday, 03 September 15
THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET AND THE CHINESE ECONOMY CONTINUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT TRADING - INTERMODAL
The last week of the summer season saw the BDI dipping further on the back of another significant drop in rates for Capes, which brought the market ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.46 MMT OF COAL IN JULY; UP 0.66 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.224 billi ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
In the beginning of the summer period SnP activity was firm with numerous buyers, coming mainly from Greece and the Far East, inspecting ships and ...
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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