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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FURTHER SLIDE TO US$ 40.62 PMT; DECLINE 5.34 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and slightly dropped week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined ...
Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS STILL SLIDING; Q2'16 DELIVERY LOST AROUND 6 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 gain week over week but declined month over month.
The 4Q swap was dow ...
Monday, 31 August 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.85 per MT (-4.23%) month over month to US$ 41.87 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 31 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ENDS DOWN MORE THAN 4 PERCENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.91 (3.78%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 30 August 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET UNDOUBTEDLY REMAINS WEAK & VOLATILE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI slipped further down this week, moving closer to 900 level. This week’s BDI falls 9.15 pct and closed at 903 points. Wh ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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