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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Friday, 11 September 15
SHIPPING MARKETS SHOW MIXED EMOTIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has managed to show marginal improvements over the past few days, with the Capesize segment faring better than smaller dry bulk ...
Friday, 11 September 15
U.S'S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION WAS ALMOST FLAT PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
U.S. H1' 15 STEAM COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 21 PER CENT Y-Y: EIA
Coal Trade
Slower growth in world coal demand, lower international coal prices, and higher coal output in other coal-exporting countries have all ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE HITS A NEW LOW OF $58.21 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price to US$ 58.21 per MT ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the fr ...
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- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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