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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Tuesday, 15 September 15
Q2'16 RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DIP TO $ 51.10 PER TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR 4Q' 2015 DELIVERY CLOSED AT $42.71 PER TON ON 11 SEPT, SGX DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.94 per MT (-2.15%) month over month to US$ 42.71 per mt. The sw ...
Monday, 14 September 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP DECLINED $1.80 PMT M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.62 (3.21 %) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Monday, 14 September 15
MOODY'S LOWERS COMMODITY PRICE ASSUMPTIONS ON MACRO, INDUSTRY FACTORS
COALspot.com: Moody's Investors Service has lowered its base metal price assumptions for 2015-17 as slowing growth in China, lower oil prices, ...
Sunday, 13 September 15
FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO BE SOFT NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI decreased further by 6.51 per cent or 57 points since last Friday and closed at 818 on 11 September 2015 while the cape index ...
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Showing 2816 to 2820 news of total 6871 |
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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