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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Monday, 21 September 15
KOMIPO OF KOREA INVITES BIDS FOR BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 390,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kcal ...
Sunday, 20 September 15
BALTIC CAPE INDEX ROSE 66.52 PER CENT AND STAND NOW AT 1995 POINTS
COALspot.com: The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) rose 17.35 per cent week over week to 960 points on Friday mainly driven by the Capesize segment. The Cape ...
Friday, 18 September 15
SHIPPING AND THE FED RATE DECISION: FINANCING COSTS COULD RISE EVEN HIGHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Regardless of the FED’s decision to raise rates, shipping stands to be influenced by the decision. Shipbroker Allied Shipbroking noted this w ...
Friday, 18 September 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 6.7 PER CENT W-W: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
COALSPOT HAS LAUNCHED NEW THERMAL COAL INDICES FOR INDONESIAN COAL
COALspot.com has today launched real-time CS (i) Coal Indices.
The Indices represents 3800 kcal/kg GAR, 4200 kcal/kg GAR, 5000 kcal/kg GAR a ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Australian Coal Association
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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