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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
 Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope that while the game continues he can put off his demise. This grim epic could be seen as a metaphor for the daunting progress through long shipping cycles, as one risk-laden move in the toxic chess game follows another.
August 2007 – The Game Starts
Today’s cycle started eight years ago in 2007. It was an epic year. Capesize earnings averaged over $110,000/day and merchant shipbuilding investment reached a record $229 billion (excluding offshore). But there was good reason to be apprehensive. In August the first signs of the financial crisis hit Europe, as interbank investors grew paranoid about the vulnerability of their counterparties to CDO exposure, bringing Eurodollar trading to a halt. Meanwhile analysts were worried that the Chinese super-boom would peak out after the Olympic Games in 2008. So although dry bulk investors were still making money and ordering ships, the solitary chess game with destiny had already started.
Mounting A Comeback
Seven years later the chess game is still going on. The financial crisis got off to a more dramatic start than anyone anticipated. In 2008 as panic swept through financial markets and trade credit became almost unobtainable, the world economy, including China, came precariously close to meltdown. But fortunately this time the politicians eased through the crisis successfully. China mounted a heroic infrastructure programme which gave bulkers a very decent boom in 2009-10. Following this the market fluctuated, but reached decent levels in late 2011 and again in late 2013.
Not Deadly Or Distressed?
As recessions go so far the game with destiny has gone quite well. Since the end of 2007 Capesize earnings have averaged $32,300/day and the market has soaked up 490m dwt of new bulkers. In 2013, 104m dwt of bulkers were ordered. So someone in the industry believed bulkers would win their chess game.
But in 2015 the game changed. Capesize earnings averaged only $6,212/day in the first half. For the first time signs of real distress are apparent. After 8 years, dry bulk sentiment finally collapsed and bulker orders fell from 16m dwt in January 2014 to 0.05m dwt in June 2015. A helpful step towards market recovery, but it leaves the shipyards with a problem. Over the last 8 years bulkers were a third of shipyard workload (see inset pie chart). Although tankers and container ships are still being ordered, they show no sign of filling the gap left by bulkers.
Dance Macabre
So there you have it. Bulkers have finally made a meaningful move towards better times by cutting investment. But the game isn’t over yet. They still need a strong world economy and continued Chinese import growth. Meanwhile a new chess game with destiny is getting started, this time in the shipyards as they try to plug the bulker gap. Maybe the game’s not over yet. So if you want a nice relaxing summer, our advice is don’t watch The Seventh Seal.
Source: Clarksons | Hellenic Shipping News
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Wednesday, 23 September 15
INDONESIA: NEW REGULATION APPLIES FINAL INCOME TAX TO MINERAL AND COAL SALES - FLORENCE GRACIA SANTOSO
To increase state revenue from the mining sector, the Government of Indonesia has imposed a new final income tax on any sale of mineral and coal, a ...
Tuesday, 22 September 15
1Q16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED 6.49 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 2.29 (-5.42%) per t ...
Tuesday, 22 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FALL CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 21 September 15
Q4' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q2' 16 SWAP
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery increased $0.43 per ton (1.01%) month over month to US$ 42.95 per ton. The ...
Monday, 21 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 0.45 (0.90 %) per ton month over month.
A commodit ...
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Coal Association
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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