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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 05 August 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - KATERINA RESTIS
On July 14th, 2015 a historical consensus was reached in Vienna between Iran and the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council, plus Germ ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
COAL CONSUMPTION POSTED THE STRONGEST GROWTH AMONG THE FOSSIL ENERGY SOURCES IN 2014 - VDKI
Coal 2014: again the world's fastest-growing primary energy source and an indispensable asset for the success of the energy turnaround.
Ac ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
FOB INDONESIA THERMAL COAL SWAPS FALL
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ ...
Wednesday, 05 August 15
DRY BULKER PRICES START TO FIRM UP AS MARKET SENTIMENT IMPROVES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Market pessimism in the dry bulk industry, a trend which had established itself over the course of the year, has started to fade away over the past ...
Tuesday, 04 August 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO FALL DUE TO SLIDING DEMAND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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