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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 12 August 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 0.98 per MT (-2.20%) month over month to US$ 43.65 per mt. The swap ...
Tuesday, 11 August 15
GLOBAL PRODUCTION OF CRUDE STEEL REACHED A NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 1,661M TONNES IN 2014 - VDKI
COALpot.com: Global production of crude steel reached a new all-time high of 1,661m tonnes in 2014, said German Coal Importer Association, in its l ...
Tuesday, 11 August 15
2016 CFR S.CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN 4Q 2015 CLOSING PRICES; BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US cents 10 (0.20%) per MT month over month.
A commodi ...
Monday, 10 August 15
SOUTH KOREAN UTILITY KOMIPO INVITES BITUMINOUS COAL BIDS FOR BORYEONG POWER PLANT
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 560,000 Metric Tons (MT) of 4,600kcal/kg NAR c ...
Sunday, 09 August 15
THE PANAMAX MARKET HAS REMAINED WEAK THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be buoyant with cape index pushing the BDI.
The BDI was up 10.49% and closed at 1200 points on 7 ...
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- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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