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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 August 15
COAL PRICE DEVELOPMENTS CAN ONLY BE DESCRIBED, SUCCINCTLY AS "OVERSUPPLY MEETS SUBDUED DEMAND" - VDKI
Coal Outlook 2015 – International
Regarding the outlook for global coal trading, two questions arise: firstly, “ whether the years of ...
Friday, 07 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED 528.1 MMST; DOWN 8.7% Y/Y - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
THE RATES FOR CAPES SHOOT UP LAST WEEK; GIVING THIS RECENT RALLY SOME MUCH NEEDED LEGS - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market noted another positive closing last week, entirely supported by Capesize performance, which managed to balance th ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
HARD COAL AND COKE IMPORTS TO GERMANY REACH NEW ALL-TIME HIGH OF 56.2M TONES IN 2014
Demand for German and imported hard coal In 2014, in 2014 fell by almost 8%, or 4.8m TCE, to 56.2m TCE.
According to German Coal Importer ...
Thursday, 06 August 15
SEABORNE WORLD TRADE IN STEAM COAL GROWS BY 3% YOY - GERMAN COAL IMPORTER ASSOCIATION
Global trade with hard coal, at 1,272m tones in 2014, increased by 35m tonnes or 3% in comparison with the previous year.
According to associa ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Australian Coal Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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