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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 04 August 15
SHIPPING CYCLES - A CHESS GAME YOU DON'T WANT TO LOSE - CLARKSONS
Ingmar Bergman’s classic movie The Seventh Seal is about a knight who, during the Black Death, challenges Death to a chess match, in the hope ...
Monday, 03 August 15
NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE FURTHER THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.92 per MT (-4.22%) month over month to US$ 43.58 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 03 August 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS SLIDE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.64 (3.14%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 02 August 15
CAPESIZE RATES PUSH BDI UPWARD
COALspot.com: The freight market was buoyant this week as BDI rose 4.14 pct to 1131 points. The cape index was also increased 16.50 pct 2209 points ...
Saturday, 01 August 15
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ITS MOMENTUM, AS OUTLOOK IMPROVES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although conditions remain more than challenging, especially from an economic point of view (aka China’s stock worries), the dry bulk market ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
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