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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 31 July 15
CAPE'S PAPER MARKET REMAINS FIRM - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The positive sentiment that the Dry Bulk market has been enjoying as of the previous month, was carried through last week as well, bu ...
Friday, 31 July 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. UP 3.6% FOR THE WEEK ENDING JULY 25
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.8 million shor ...
Friday, 31 July 15
CHINA'S NEW OIL IMPORT RULES HAVE MINIMAL IMPACT ON STATUS QUO - FITCH
Fitch Ratings says that China's looser criteria for crude oil import rights are a positive but modest step towards encouraging private-sector p ...
Thursday, 30 July 15
EFFECTS OF THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET CRISIS - INTERMODAL
All evidence is currently signaling that the Chinese stock market will be the newest hurdle for the global economy. With the world's second lar ...
Wednesday, 29 July 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and gains week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was decl ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Planning Commission, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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