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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 26 July 15
INDO-INDIA OCEAN COAL FREIGHT RATES REMAIN STEADY
COALspot.com: The freight market continued lost steam towards end of the week and all indices were showing downward trend.
The BDI was up by 3 ...
Friday, 24 July 15
U.S PRODUCED 17.2 MMST OF COAL FOR THE WEEK ENDED JULY 18; FELL 11.5% YEAR ON YEAR
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.2 million shor ...
Friday, 24 July 15
THE IMPACT OF COLLAPSING CHINESE COAL IMPORTS - CLARKSONS
Global seaborne coal trade is currently projected to drop 1% y-o-y in 2015, which would be the first annual decline in almost three decades. The dr ...
Thursday, 23 July 15
ELEVEN NEW NICKEL SMELTERS ARE TO BE BUILT IN INDONESIA OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS AT A COST OF $1.4 BILLION
Indonesia’s Most Reputable Nickel Event
Eleven new nickel smelters are to be built in Indonesia over the next two years at a cost of $1. ...
Thursday, 23 July 15
THE CAPESIZE SEGMENT KEPT FOUNDING SUPPORT ON INCREASED DEMAND FROM CHINESE STEEL MILLS - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market closed off on Friday (17July 2015) noting substantial gains and the BDI surpassing the 1,000 points level for the first time af ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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