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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 19 July 15
BDI GAINED AND CROSSED 1000 MARK THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI gained and crossed 1000 mark after many months this Friday. The BDI was up almost 20 pct and closed 1048 points on 17 July 20 ...
Saturday, 18 July 15
INTERVIEW : FRANZ ESCALANTE, CHIEF OF INFORMATION SYSTEMS, MINERA CHINALCO, PERU
We are interested in the technology of Autonomous trucks, the new-generation trucks are not remote controlled, they are truly autonomous - Franz Es ...
Friday, 17 July 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. INCREASES SHARPLY FOR THE WEEK ENDING JULY 11
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.4 million short ...
Friday, 17 July 15
INDONESIAN POWER-STATION COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined $ ...
Friday, 17 July 15
DO CANCELLATION RIGHTS UNDER VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY SURVIVE RE-NOMINATION OF LOAD PORT? - INCE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Do cancellation rights under voyage charterparty survive re-nomination of load port?
St Shipping & Transport Inc ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
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