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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 16 July 15
INDONESIA'S HBA HITS ALL-TIME LOW OF $59.16 PER METRIC TON IN JULY 2015
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.16 pe ...
Thursday, 16 July 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINE W-O-W, M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The last few weeks have been rather strenuous for Greece and China, each for their own reasons, affecting most markets around the world. In Greece ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
IRAN OIL RECOVERY TO TAKE YEARS, BUT COULD START IN 2016 - FITCH
Iranian crude oil production is likely to increase in 2016 but will take a number of years to reach its previous peak, Fitch Ratings says.
The ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
SAS TO BUILD 108 KM ROAD FOR COAL IN JAMBI, SAYS JAKARTA POST
Jambi Governor Hasan Basri Agus said on Sunday that mining company PT Sinar Anugerah Sukses (SAS) would develop a 108-kilometer road with a width o ...
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
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