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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 17 August 15
INDONESIAN THERMAL COAL REFERENCE PRICE HITS RECORD LOW AGAIN!
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.14 per MT fo ...
Monday, 17 August 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO HEAD SOUTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US cents 40 (1.05%) per MT month over month.
A commodi ...
Sunday, 16 August 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO STEADY NEXT WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI softened 12.08 per cent to 1055 points this week due to weakening of cape index which was fell 25 per cent week over week to ...
Friday, 14 August 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP SHOWING NO MOVEMENT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ ...
Friday, 14 August 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.9 PER CENT THIS WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.2 million shor ...
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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