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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 August 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS CONTINUE FLAT TREND LINE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week, this past week.
The 4Q swap was decli ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
DRY BULK: MARKETS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE SEVERELY CHALLENGED - CLARKSONS
The dry bulk markets have continued to be severely challenged with freight rates falling during the period to below operating expense. The Baltic D ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
1Q'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP FALLS BELOW $54 A TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 18 August 15
2Q' 16 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $43 PER MT W/E 14 AUGUST
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.08 per MT (-2.46%) month over month to US$ 42.82 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 17 August 15
TROUBLED DRY BULK MARKET FACES TURMOIL AS CHINESE COAL IMPORTS REMAIN WEAK - BIMCO
The demand for coal in China continues to diminish. So much in fact that India is expected to succeed China as the world’s largest imp ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Planning Commission, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The University of Queensland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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