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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 26 August 15
2Q'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS NEARLY 4.76 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined $ 2.20 (-5.13%) p ...
Tuesday, 25 August 15
INDONESIA MINERS' NPLS TO RISE FURTHER, BANK RISKS BUILD - FITCH
The NPLs of Indonesian mine and mine services companies are likely to rise further in the short term, says Fitch Ratings, after reaching multi-year ...
Tuesday, 25 August 15
MINER'S EARNINGS DROP ON FALLING COAL PRICES; Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 52.23 A TON
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 24 August 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS HIT FRESH LOW, DIPPING BELOW $42 A TON
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 2.20 per MT (-5.01%) month over month to US$ 41.70 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 24 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 48.65 PMT
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.89 (3.74%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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