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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 28 August 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNER OPTIMISTIC ABOUT FUTURE PROSPECTS OF THE MARKET: NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Dry bulk ship owner Golden Ocean appeared optimistic on the long term prospects of the dry bulk market, mainly thanks to an expected resolution of ...
Friday, 28 August 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING AUGUST 22 ROSE FOR THE THIRD STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.5 million shor ...
Friday, 28 August 15
BANPU STRENGTHENS GROWTH PLAN
Coal Business: Asia-Pacific Synergies Increase Competitiveness for Premium Export Market.
Banpu Public Company Limited (BANPU) strengthens its ...
Thursday, 27 August 15
RATES FOR CAPES REMAINED ON A FREE FALL LAST WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: Keeping everyone on their toes with the volatility seen in August, the Dry Bulk market undoubtedly remains a steady provider of chall ...
Wednesday, 26 August 15
MARKET INSIGHT - STRATOS TINIAKOS
It’s always interesting to comment on the market when big economies around the world are facing troubling times. Following the collapse of th ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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