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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 August 15
IS CHINA'S STEEL EXPORTS ENOUGH TO SUPPORT THE FREIGHT MARKET? - BIMCO
No, it’s not enough, you will need lower Chinese iron ore production too in order to keep growing imports of iron ore into China that will su ...
Sunday, 23 August 15
SHIPPING FREIGHT RATES FALL SHARPLY ON EXCESS SUPPLY AND LOW DEMAND
COALspot.com: The BDI continued to soften and was down 5.78 pct and falls back below 1000 points this week.
The cape Index lost 17.25 per cent ...
Friday, 21 August 15
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION VOLUME FALLS 8.7% Y-O-Y
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.3 million shor ...
Friday, 21 August 15
GLOBALCOAL TO LAUNCH ONLINE TRADING OF PHYSICAL MET COAL ON 13 OCTOBER
On 13 October 2015, globalCOAL will launch an online platform for the physical procurement and trade of high quality hard coking coal delivered FOB ...
Thursday, 20 August 15
COAL PRICES FALL TO 12-YEAR LOWS AS CHINA, INDIA JOIN DEMAND SLOWDOWN - REUTERS
Coal futures have fallen to 12-year lows, hit by soaring production and a slowdown in global buying, including from India and China which until rec ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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