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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 September 15
GOVERNORS WILL HAVE THE POWER TO REVOKE MINERS' PERMITS: ENERGY MINISTRY - JG
Starting Oct. 1, Indonesia's governors will lawfully become "executors" in revoking the licenses of miners that fail to secure a &quo ...
Thursday, 03 September 15
MINISTRY OF ENERGY AND MINERAL RESOURCES OF INDONESIA TO REVISE HBA METHODOLOGY
COALspot.com: Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources (ESDM) in process to revise Indonesian Coal Price Reference (HBA) and expected to complete b ...
Thursday, 03 September 15
THE CHINESE STOCK MARKET AND THE CHINESE ECONOMY CONTINUE TO SUBSTANTIALLY AFFECT TRADING - INTERMODAL
The last week of the summer season saw the BDI dipping further on the back of another significant drop in rates for Capes, which brought the market ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 13.46 MMT OF COAL IN JULY; UP 0.66 PER CENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.224 billi ...
Wednesday, 02 September 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - GEORGE ILIOPOULOS
In the beginning of the summer period SnP activity was firm with numerous buyers, coming mainly from Greece and the Far East, inspecting ships and ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
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