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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS FURTHER SLIDE TO US$ 40.62 PMT; DECLINE 5.34 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and slightly dropped week over week.
The 4Q swap was declined ...
Tuesday, 01 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS STILL SLIDING; Q2'16 DELIVERY LOST AROUND 6 PERCENT M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 gain week over week but declined month over month.
The 4Q swap was dow ...
Monday, 31 August 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP GAINS WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.85 per MT (-4.23%) month over month to US$ 41.87 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 31 August 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ENDS DOWN MORE THAN 4 PERCENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 1.91 (3.78%) per MT month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 30 August 15
THE DRY BULK MARKET UNDOUBTEDLY REMAINS WEAK & VOLATILE THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI slipped further down this week, moving closer to 900 level. This week’s BDI falls 9.15 pct and closed at 903 points. Wh ...
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- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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