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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 09 September 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOSE GROUND ON SLOWING DEMAND
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.92 (-4.52%) per t ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS CONTINUE TO SHOW DECLINING TREND
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Tuesday, 08 September 15
GANGAVARAM PORT IN INDIA DISCHARGES RECORD 112,599 MT OF STEAM COAL IN 24 HOURS
COALspot.com: Gangavaram Port, an all weather, multipurpose port with water depth up-to 21 meters, capable of handling fully laden Super Cap ...
Monday, 07 September 15
THE MINE OF THE FUTURE WILL HAVE ONLY TWO EMPLOYEES, A MAN AND A DOG - SCOTT MCGOWAN
"The Technology and Innovation in Mining 2015" production team at Information Exchange Group interviewed Scott Mcgowan, Director, Global ...
Monday, 07 September 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP FOR Q2' 16 DELIVERY CLOSED US CENTS 25 LOWER COMPARED TO Q4' 15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined $0.73 per MT (-1.68%) month over month to US$ 42.65 per mt. The sw ...
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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