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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 11 September 15
SHIPPING MARKETS SHOW MIXED EMOTIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has managed to show marginal improvements over the past few days, with the Capesize segment faring better than smaller dry bulk ...
Friday, 11 September 15
U.S'S WEEKLY COAL PRODUCTION WAS ALMOST FLAT PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 18.6 million shor ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
U.S. H1' 15 STEAM COAL EXPORTS FELL BY 21 PER CENT Y-Y: EIA
Coal Trade
Slower growth in world coal demand, lower international coal prices, and higher coal output in other coal-exporting countries have all ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
INDONESIAN COAL BENCHMARK PRICE HITS A NEW LOW OF $58.21 PER TON
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price to US$ 58.21 per MT ...
Thursday, 10 September 15
IF NOT NOW, WHEN? - GIANNIS ANDRITSOPOULOS
Our industry is well known to be cyclical with some cycles lasting longer than others. Despite the fact that these shifts in the behavior of the fr ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
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