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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 September 15
LOW DEMAND PUSH COAL SWAP DOWN
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and gain week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 1.77 (-4.17%) ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
MARKET INSIGHT - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Having experienced, as it was much anticipated, a poor 1st half combined with negative forecasts, summer, in sharp contrast, proved to be more hope ...
Wednesday, 16 September 15
SLOWER GROWTH IN WORLD COAL DEMAND AND LOWER INTERNATIONAL COAL PRICES LED A DECLINE IN INDONESIAN COAL PRODUCTION
COALspot.com: Slower growth in world coal demand particularly China and lower international coal prices have led to a decline in Indonesian coal pr ...
Wednesday, 16 September 15
HIGHER TAXES COULD LEAD GREEK SHIP OWNERS OUT OF THE COUNTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
A potential taxation overhaul of the shipping industry in Hellas, which could see the loss of particular tax benefits for ship owners, could lead t ...
Tuesday, 15 September 15
WORLD SEABORNE TRADE: ENTERING INTO A ROLE REVERSAL? - CLARKSONS
Over the past decade, world seaborne trade growth has been dominated by dry bulk and container trade. However, developments in the global economy t ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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