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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 21 September 15
KOMIPO OF KOREA INVITES BIDS FOR BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 390,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kcal ...
Sunday, 20 September 15
BALTIC CAPE INDEX ROSE 66.52 PER CENT AND STAND NOW AT 1995 POINTS
COALspot.com: The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) rose 17.35 per cent week over week to 960 points on Friday mainly driven by the Capesize segment. The Cape ...
Friday, 18 September 15
SHIPPING AND THE FED RATE DECISION: FINANCING COSTS COULD RISE EVEN HIGHER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Regardless of the FED’s decision to raise rates, shipping stands to be influenced by the decision. Shipbroker Allied Shipbroking noted this w ...
Friday, 18 September 15
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION DECLINED 6.7 PER CENT W-W: EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.4 million shor ...
Thursday, 17 September 15
COALSPOT HAS LAUNCHED NEW THERMAL COAL INDICES FOR INDONESIAN COAL
COALspot.com has today launched real-time CS (i) Coal Indices.
The Indices represents 3800 kcal/kg GAR, 4200 kcal/kg GAR, 5000 kcal/kg GAR a ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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