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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Monday, 28 September 15
CAPESIZE FLEET INCREASES BY JUST 1 VESSEL DURING LAST 12 MONTHS, IN POSITIVE SIGN FOR DRY BULK SHIPPING MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
After a rather tumultuous period, the shipping industry and more particular the dry bulk market has started to adjust to the new realities of globa ...
Monday, 28 September 15
Q1'16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP ROSE 2.73 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery moved upward US$ 1.45 (3.04 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
Sunday, 27 September 15
THE PANAMAX INDEX FELL 1.19 PCT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI closed Friday (25/09/2015) at 943 points, down by 17 points compared to previous Friday closing (18/09/2015). The BDI wa ...
Friday, 25 September 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING SEPTEMBER 19 ROSE 2.5% PER CENT W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.8 million shor ...
Wednesday, 23 September 15
CAPESIZE: SPOT RATES HAVE INCREASED MORE THAN 70 PER CENT DURING LAST WEEK
Dry Bulk owners, always look at September as the time that the market “signals” what lies ahead for the remainder of the year. The Chin ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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