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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 01 October 15
SOUTH KOREA'S KOMIPO SEEKS SPOT BITUMINOUS COAL SUPPLIES
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender for 265,000 Metric Tons (MT) of minimum 4,600 kcal ...
Wednesday, 30 September 15
Q1'16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FALLS $1.25 A TON AS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 0.72 (-1.78%) per t ...
Wednesday, 30 September 15
NEW BUILDING MARKET INSIGHT
COALspot.com: This year has been, beyond any doubt, a rather strenuous one for the newbuilding market. Ordering activity with regards to Dry Bulker ...
Tuesday, 29 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS ARE SLIDING
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 28 September 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS UP $2.15 IN ONE MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery increased $2.10 per ton (5.15%) month over month to US$ 42.93 per ton. The ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
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