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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
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Wednesday, 23 September 15
INDONESIA: NEW REGULATION APPLIES FINAL INCOME TAX TO MINERAL AND COAL SALES - FLORENCE GRACIA SANTOSO
To increase state revenue from the mining sector, the Government of Indonesia has imposed a new final income tax on any sale of mineral and coal, a ...
Tuesday, 22 September 15
1Q16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP DECLINED 6.49 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery 4Q 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The 4Q swap declined $ 2.29 (-5.42%) per t ...
Tuesday, 22 September 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS FALL CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery 4Q' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The 4Q swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 21 September 15
Q4' 15 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q2' 16 SWAP
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery increased $0.43 per ton (1.01%) month over month to US$ 42.95 per ton. The ...
Monday, 21 September 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP GAINED WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined just US$ 0.45 (0.90 %) per ton month over month.
A commodit ...
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
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