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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 October 15
U.S. COAL EXPORTS FOR THE FIRST SEVEN MONTHS DOWN 21 PER CENT COMPARED WITH THE SAME PERIOD IN 2014 - EIA
Coal Supply
Lower U.S.’s domestic coal consumption and reduced exports contribute to a forecast decline of 89 million short tons (M ...
Wednesday, 07 October 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Sale and Purchase activity during the first three quarters of 2015 and more specifically during the summer season has been rather remarkable. 421 v ...
Wednesday, 07 October 15
INDONESIA COAL SWAPS HAVE CONTINUED TO DECLINE, FALLING ALMOST 7% M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.23 (-5.51%) per t ...
Tuesday, 06 October 15
THE IMPACT OF LOW OIL PRICE ON THE SHIPPING INDUSTRY - LITERATED
The fall in global oil prices over the last one year has been beneficial to the shipping industry. The demand for oil tankers has picked up and the ...
Tuesday, 06 October 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS PLUNGE MORE THAN 6 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 declined week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was down US$ ...
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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