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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 15 October 15
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE FALLS FOR SEVEN STRAIGHT MONTH IN OCTOBER
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia once a again revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price this month.
The ...
Thursday, 15 October 15
Q1' 16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP ADVANCED 2 PER CENT WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gain week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was dow ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING FLEET NET EXPANSION WAS 1.3% DURING THIRD QUARTER, BUT ORDERBOOK REDUCED TO 17% OF THE TRADING FLEET
If the dry bulk market is to rebound on a sustainable level, it needs to limit the tonnage expansion, at least until demand picks up again, as Chin ...
Tuesday, 13 October 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINED 2 PER CENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.46 per ton (1.08%) month over month to US$ 42.17 per ton. The ...
Monday, 12 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W; SLIGHTLY DOWN M-M
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US cents 3 (0.06 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity ...
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Planning Commission, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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