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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 October 15
DRY BULK SHIPPING: MARKETS ARE SLOWLY IMPROVING FROM A VERY LOW LEVEL AS THE DEMAND SIDE FALTERS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market is in the midst of a shift in demand patterns, which coupled with a tonnage supply overhang, has been facing headwinds over the ...
Monday, 12 October 15
BDI WEIGHED DOWN BY CAPE
COALspot.com: The BDI (Baltic Dry Index) has come back down again this week. The BDI is a benchmark index used to assess the overall cost of moving ...
Sunday, 11 October 15
TANKER SHIPPING: MORE OPTIMISM IN SIGHT FOR TANKERS IN THE WINTER SEASON - BIMCO
Demand:
2015 has been the year of the tanker. The fundamental improvements with slow supply-side growth for some years coupled with low oil pri ...
Friday, 09 October 15
US WEEKLY COAL OUTPUT UP 1.2 PERCENT TO 17.7 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.7 million shor ...
Thursday, 08 October 15
CAPESIZE: MOST PEOPLE AGREE A SPIKE IN RATES WILL HAPPEN; WHEN, HOW LONG AND HOW SUBSTANTIAL? - FEARNLEYS
Cape
Depressives start of the fourth quarter, with c3 approaching USD 12 pmt and c5 presently in the mind 5's. According to Fearnleys ship br ...
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
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