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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 18 October 15
THE BDI AND OTHER INDICES CLOSED OFF ON NEGATIVE NOTE THIS FRIDAY
COALspot.com: The BDI closed off on negative note this Friday compared to previous Friday's closing.
The BDI closed this Friday (16 Octobe ...
Friday, 16 October 15
MAJOR REVISION OF NYPE TIME CHAPTER PARTY - BIMCO
Major revision of NYPE time charter party promises to be both balanced and comprehensive
BIMCO has today jointly issued the first revision of ...
Friday, 16 October 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR Q4'15 DELIVERY FLAT WEEK OVER WEEK; DOWN 5.5 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and flat week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.23 (-5.51%) ...
Friday, 16 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES DECREASED THIS WEEK; DOWN 11.3 PER CENT Y-Y, DOWN 3.5 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.1 million shor ...
Friday, 16 October 15
INDONESIA REJOINING OPEC DESPITE BEING A NET IMPORTER OF PETROLEUM - EIA
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) notified Indonesia that it plans to accept the country's request to reactivate its ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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