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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 October 15
RUSSIA'S CARBO ONE COAL SALES TO HIT 50 MLN T/YR - JACQUELINE HOLMES
COALspot.com: Russia's Carbo One has become one of the world's leading physical coal traders with an annual volume approaching 50 million t ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
In today’s dry bulk market, both freight rates and asset prices are creating mixed feelings to seasoned ship owners, who tend to instinctivel ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
INDONESIAN COAL MINER BUKIT ASAM POSTS POSITIVE PERFORMANCE DURING FIRST THREE QUARTERS OF 2015
COALspot.com: Indonesian publicly listed and state controlled coal miner PT. Bukit Asam has announced that, the company’s coal sales up 8 per ...
Wednesday, 21 October 15
LOWER DEMAND HIT Q1' 16 INDONESIA COAL SWAPS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 1.88 (-4.71%) per t ...
Tuesday, 20 October 15
SHIPBROKER SEES CAPESIZE RATES EASILY REACHING $25,000/DAY BY YEAR-END : NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The future course of the dry bulk market has been troubling market participants for quite some time now, as the “elusive” freight rate ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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