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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 26 October 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSE DOWN 4.3% AS DEMAND CONCERNS WEIGH
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down just US$ 1.48 (3.02 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity sw ...
Sunday, 25 October 15
ANOTHER DISAPPOINTING WEEK FOR PANAMAX; INDEX FELL 5.4 PERCENT W-W
COALspot.com: The BDI was slightly up by 2.65 pct closing at 774 points mainly because of Cape index which was up by 10.85 pct closing at 1461 poin ...
Sunday, 25 October 15
DRY BULK SHIP OWNERS ARE LOOKING TO CHINA'S POLICIES FOR CUES ON FUTURE MARKET DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
China’s hard or softer landing is a thing which has troubled dry bulk shipping for a couple of years now, as owners have been hit by the coun ...
Friday, 23 October 15
WILL INDIAN DOMESTIC COAL PRICES BE ABLE TO COMPETE IMPORTED COAL PRICES IF THE CURRENT TREND CONTINUES?
COALspot.com: The Most of the Indian end-users are waiting for last minute purchase to enjoy every drop in price. Coal procurement managers are als ...
Friday, 23 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. FOR THE WEEK ENDING OCTOBER 17 DECLINED FOR THE SECOND STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.6 million shor ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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