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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 31 October 15
ADARO ENERGY'S CORE EARNINGS DECLINE 21 PER CENT FOR THE NINE MONTHS PERIOD TO SEPTEMBER 2015
COALspot.com: Adaro Energy's core earnings decline 21% to US$228 Million for first 9months of this year compared to the same period last year. ...
Friday, 30 October 15
INDONESIA'S COAL EXPORTS DROP ON LOW PRICES - THE JAKARTA POST
Indonesia's coal exports significantly dropped in the first nine months of the year as coal companies continued to suffer from low prices in ad ...
Friday, 30 October 15
CHINESE MINERAL IMPORTS: MOVING ON FROM INDONESIA? - CLARKSONS
China has accounted for almost 90% of global imports of nickel ore and bauxite in recent years and was therefore heavily hit by the Indonesian mine ...
Friday, 30 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES INCREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
Thursday, 29 October 15
IRAN'S RETURN TO OIL MARKETS WILL HAVE TEMPERED IMPACT FOR THE TANKER SHIPPING INDUSTRY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
While many analysts appear to be fearful of a potential incremental rise in tanker ships’ supply, as a result of the imminent return of Iran ...
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- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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