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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 03 November 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery slid $1.84 per ton (4.34%) month over month to US$ 40.54 per ton. The swap ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
EU OIL MAJORS FACE FURTHER EARNINGS DECLINE IN Q415 - FITCH RATINGS
The sharp drop in major European oil companies' third-quarter profits is likely to be extended in the fourth quarter as refining margins, which ...
Monday, 02 November 15
DESPITE CHALLENGING MARKET CONDITIONS, ADARO LOWERS COSTS, DEBT AND DELIVERS STRONG FREE CASH FLOW
COALspot.com: Despite challenging market conditions, Adaro lowers costs, lowers debt and delivers strong free cash flow.
The Indonesia’s ...
Monday, 02 November 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED ON A WEAK NOTE
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.81(3.71 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 01 November 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET SENTIMENT REMAINS WEAK
This week’s freight market sentiment remains weak compared to last week.
The Baltic Dry Index (BDI), an economic indicator issued daily ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
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