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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 05 November 15
Q2'16 INDO THERMAL COAL SWAP CONTRACT FOB INDONESIA FALLS TO $39.90/T
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week. Price of coal seen no improvements this past we ...
Thursday, 05 November 15
INFORMATION EXCHANGE GROUP'S LATAM MINING SECURITY SUMMIT 2016 - INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON TECHNOLOGY SECURITY IN MINING
Press Release: LATAM Mining Security Summit 2016 is a carefully designed event that will bring together the leading stakeholders in the mining sect ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
MARKET INSIGHT - CHRISTOPHER THOMAS WHITTY
Four companies dominate global iron ore production, namely; BHP Billiton, Vale, Rio Tinto, and Fortescue Metals Group. Together these companies con ...
Wednesday, 04 November 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS GAIN W-W AND M-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and month over month.
The Q4 swap was up US$ 1.4 ...
Tuesday, 03 November 15
THE DISCHARGE OF CARGO IN THE PRC WITHOUT ORIGINAL BILLS OF LADING - CLYDE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
On occasions, a vessel may arrive at a port and be ready to discharge but the original bills of lading in respect of the ...
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
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