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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 29 October 15
Q2' 16 FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 37.40 PER TON; DECLINED 5.56 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q4 2015 declined month on month and week over week.
The Q4 swap declined $ 2.13 (-5.34%) per t ...
Wednesday, 28 October 15
Q2'16 FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAP SEES FURTHER DECLINES
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q4' 2015 gained week over week and declined month over month.
The Q4 swap was d ...
Wednesday, 28 October 15
BDI INCREASE TOOK PLACE SOLELY ON THE BACK OF CAPESIZE PERFORMANCE, BUT........ - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The Dry Bulk market closed off the week noting a small improvement which nonetheless failed to lift sentiment, not only because ...
Tuesday, 27 October 15
Q1'16 API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP DECLINE 6 PER CENT M-M
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $2 per ton (4.66%) month over month to US$ 40.93 per ton. The swa ...
Monday, 26 October 15
PORT OF NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 10.5 PER CENT LESS COAL IN SEPTEMBER, COMPARED TO AUGUST LOADING
COALspot.com: The Port of Newcastle, Australia’s major trading ports and the world’s largest coal export port, has shipped $1.161 billi ...
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
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