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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
 In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, while in the dry go long on chartering-in or buy and wait.
In the wet sector, buying a 5-year old Tanker and chartering it out for 3-years would return back a significant part of the investment, namely, 35-40% in all sectors from MR to VLCCs. The Price to 1-year Earnings(annualized 3-year T/C Revenues minus OPEX) ratios for all tanker sectors are in the region of 7.45 and 8.63, well below the several last years’ averages, which renders investments with fixed charters attractive. The anticipated correction in product tankers due to the significant deliveries did not materialize with the demand absorbing the supply. At the same time, the crude sector enjoys the strongest freight market since 2008-09. 15-year old VLCCs, which had reached valuations below $20m in 2012/13 are today valued double that price at shy/rgn $40m. However, the crude tanker order book is increasing and the challenging conditions for shipyards may tempt them to lower/control their prices further to get more new building orders. So, the implied strategy for tankers is buy if you can charter-out long-term at the current firm rates.
In the dry sector, Messrs. Fredriksen, Embiricos, Chandris, Angelicoussis, Martinos extended family, Prokopiou, Hadjiyiannis (Cyprus) are just a few amongst distinguished counter-cyclical peers who have made decisive moves during this 1st half. 15-yo Capes were sold in the $9m’s, about one third of the price paid 15 months earlier.
Interestingly, in the last couple of weeks, prices for modern Kamsarmaxes have increased almost 10% for the first time since March 2014 while competition and the number of inspecting parties is rising. Meantime, the BDI has more than doubled since February’s historical lows. The record scrapping of the 1st half and the limited new building orders during the last year point to an eventual recovery. The short term momentum for asset values is rosy, while the longer (3-year) t/c rates remain extremely depressed and represent a promising alternative vehicle of investment although the owners willing to charter-out on a long basis are scarce.
Finally, we have calculated the ratios of the Price of a 5-year old vessel over its 1-year earnings. We used 3-year T/C rates (on an annualized basis) to remove excess ‘noise’ and since both asset values and longer-T/C rates incorporate certain (ir-)rational expectations. No strong pattern was revealed. Still the strongest incentive to invest is ‘buy as low as it gets’ even if the underlying freight market is depressed or ‘buy and fix long’ when P/E’s are low.
By Panos Tsilingiris
SnP/Newbuildings Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 05 October 15
Q1 & Q2 2016 DELIVERY SWAPS DECLINED M-M AND W-W THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q4’ 2015 delivery decreased $0.36 per ton (0.85%) month over month to US$ 42.12 per ton. The ...
Monday, 05 October 15
Q1' 16 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED US$ 48.05 PER TON
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for 4Q’ 2015 delivery down US$ 0.47 (0.96 %) per ton month over month.
A commodity swap is ...
Monday, 05 October 15
SMALL DECLINE IN 2014 SHIP OPERATING COSTS - MOORE STEPHENS
Total annual operating costs in the shipping industry fell by an average of 0.8% in 2014. This compares with the 0.3% average fall in costs recorde ...
Sunday, 04 October 15
THE INDO-INDIA FREIGHT MARKET REMAINS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com: The BDI closed on Friday (2 Oct 2015) at 889 points, down by 54 points compared to previous Friday's closing ( 24 Sept 2015) of 9 ...
Friday, 02 October 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE UNITED STATES DECREASED THIS WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer has produced approximately totaled an estimated 17.5 million shor ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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