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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 May 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. ALMOST FLAT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million short ...
Friday, 29 May 15
SOUTH KOREAN STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 780K MT OF COAL FOR H2' 15
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to buy total 780K Metric Tons (MT) of HCV and LCV ...
Thursday, 28 May 15
TIMEBAR FOR DEMURRAGE CLAIMS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
English law has traditionally had a strict approach to contractually agreed time bars between commercial parties as well ...
Tuesday, 26 May 15
HOW HAS THE DROP IN OIL PRICES AFFECTED OTHER COMMODITIES? - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The effects of the dramatic drop in the price of both Ice March Brent, the international oil marker, and its US counterpa ...
Tuesday, 26 May 15
MINING ASSOCIATION PERHAPI PUSHES FOR 35,000 MEGAWATT ELECTRICITY PROGRAM - JG
The Indonesian Mining Professionals Association, or Perhapi, has announced its support for a 35,000-megawatt national electricity program, saying i ...
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- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Planning Commission, India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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