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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 29 May 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. ALMOST FLAT THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.1 million short ...
Friday, 29 May 15
SOUTH KOREAN STATE-OWNED UTILITY KOREA MIDLAND POWER INVITES BIDS FOR 780K MT OF COAL FOR H2' 15
COALspot.com: South Korean state-owned utility Korea Midland Power (KOMIPO) issued an new tender to buy total 780K Metric Tons (MT) of HCV and LCV ...
Thursday, 28 May 15
TIMEBAR FOR DEMURRAGE CLAIMS - SKULD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
English law has traditionally had a strict approach to contractually agreed time bars between commercial parties as well ...
Tuesday, 26 May 15
HOW HAS THE DROP IN OIL PRICES AFFECTED OTHER COMMODITIES? - CLYDE & CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
The effects of the dramatic drop in the price of both Ice March Brent, the international oil marker, and its US counterpa ...
Tuesday, 26 May 15
MINING ASSOCIATION PERHAPI PUSHES FOR 35,000 MEGAWATT ELECTRICITY PROGRAM - JG
The Indonesian Mining Professionals Association, or Perhapi, has announced its support for a 35,000-megawatt national electricity program, saying i ...
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
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