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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 June 15
U.S PRODUCED 15.1 MMST OF COAL THIS PAST WEEK; LESS 20.7% COMPARED TO SAME PERIOD IN 2014
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totalled an estimated 15.1 million shor ...
Thursday, 04 June 15
DRY BULK MARKET FAILED TO OFFER ANY POSITIVE SURPRISES - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: This has been another week that the Dry Bulk market failed to offer any positive surprises, while the BDI, which is still faring belo ...
Wednesday, 03 June 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - VASSILIS LOGOTHETIS
For some time now the Dry Bulk market has been severely affected by China’s slowing GDP growth rate that occurs in the background of increase ...
Tuesday, 02 June 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3 SWAP ADVANCED 1.73% MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month and lost week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was climbed ...
Tuesday, 02 June 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS; Q3'15 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q1'16
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 up month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was up US$ 0.80 (1 ...
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- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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