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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 11 June 15
IS COAL INDUSTRY GOING TO HIT A BRICK WALL?
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.59 per MT fo ...
Wednesday, 10 June 15
TANKER MARKET INSIGHT - STELIOS KOLLINTZAS
As we go through the end of the 2nd quarter of the year it is evident that the tanker shipping markets have been rewarding and definitely been show ...
Wednesday, 10 June 15
WORLD COAL MARKET HEADING TO NEW EQUILIBRIUM: MINISTER - JAKARTA POST
Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Sudirman Said has said the world’s coal market is heading towards a new balance, which will make Indone ...
Wednesday, 10 June 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP ROSE W-O-W AND M-O-M
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was climbed by $ ...
Tuesday, 09 June 15
GLOBALCOAL IMPLEMENTS VOLUMETRIC SIZE LIMITS IN RICHARDS BAY MARKET
COALspot.com: globalCOAL today announced that following recent market consultation, it will limit bids, offers and trades in the fixed price Phys R ...
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- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Australian Coal Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
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