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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 15 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP: Q1'16 DELIVERY CLOSED 1.14% LOWER THAN Q4'15 DELIVERY PRICE
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up $ 1.10 per MT (2.47%) month over month to US$ 45.67 per mt. The swap ...
Monday, 15 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: ROSE M-O-M; DECLINED W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery rose US$ 1.43 (2.82%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a ...
Sunday, 14 June 15
THE FREIGHT MARKET FINISHED THE WEEK UP COMPARED TO LAST WEEK
COALspot.com: The freight market finished the week up compared to last week. All the segments except for Cape index were up. Cape segment was ...
Friday, 12 June 15
EXPECTATIONS IN REGARDS TO THE SUMMER SEASON VARY ACROSS THE MARKET - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market closed off last slightly up last week, with the BDI re-gaining the 600 points level, while the driving force behind the increas ...
Friday, 12 June 15
U.S. PRODUCED 15.1 MMST OF COAL THIS PAST WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 15.1 million short ...
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- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Australian Coal Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
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