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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 01 June 15
35,000 MW POWER PLANTS TO BOOST COAL CONSUMPTION - JP
The government’s program to develop 35,000 megawatt (MW) power plants will increase domestic coal consumption, which currently stands at arou ...
Monday, 01 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; Q1'16 CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.36 per MT (0.80%) month over month. The swap was closed at US$ ...
Monday, 01 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: GAINED W-W, M-M; Q1'16 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.15 (2.26%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a f ...
Sunday, 31 May 15
CAPE AND PANAMAX SEGMENTS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: The BDI was up about 0.5 pct week on week and closed at 589 points while the cape index was fell 0.73 pct and closed at 810 po ...
Friday, 29 May 15
DRY BULK MARKET IS THE VICTIM OF A SHIFT IN DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The fall in dry bulk freight rates is attributed, in large part, to the substantial decrease of China’s thermal coal imports, a major commodi ...
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
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