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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 01 June 15
35,000 MW POWER PLANTS TO BOOST COAL CONSUMPTION - JP
The government’s program to develop 35,000 megawatt (MW) power plants will increase domestic coal consumption, which currently stands at arou ...
Monday, 01 June 15
API 5 FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP; Q1'16 CLOSED LOWER COMPARED TO Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.36 per MT (0.80%) month over month. The swap was closed at US$ ...
Monday, 01 June 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: GAINED W-W, M-M; Q1'16 CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q3'15
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.15 (2.26%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap is a f ...
Sunday, 31 May 15
CAPE AND PANAMAX SEGMENTS SLIDE CONTINUES
COALspot.com: The BDI was up about 0.5 pct week on week and closed at 589 points while the cape index was fell 0.73 pct and closed at 810 po ...
Friday, 29 May 15
DRY BULK MARKET IS THE VICTIM OF A SHIFT IN DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The fall in dry bulk freight rates is attributed, in large part, to the substantial decrease of China’s thermal coal imports, a major commodi ...
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- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The University of Queensland
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
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