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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP; UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains week over week and lost month on month, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined ...
Monday, 25 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP Q1'16 CLOSED LOWER THAN Q3'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.92 per MT (2.07%) month over month and US$ 0.70 week on week. ...
Monday, 25 May 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP : Q3, Q4'15 & Q1'16 INCREASED M-O-M AND W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.55 (3.09%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.72 (1.41%) pe ...
Sunday, 24 May 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA PANAMAX CHARTER RATES WERE RATING AT AROUND US$ 5500
COALspot.com: The freight market softened in all segments this past week.
The BDI was dropped 7.57 percent week over week and closed at 586 po ...
Friday, 22 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3'15 SWAP FINISHED THE WEEK UP 38 CENTS TO $43.65 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains week over week and lost month on month, past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ ...
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
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