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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP; UP WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains week over week and lost month on month, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined ...
Monday, 25 May 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP Q1'16 CLOSED LOWER THAN Q3'15 CLOSING
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery gained US$ 0.92 per MT (2.07%) month over month and US$ 0.70 week on week. ...
Monday, 25 May 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP : Q3, Q4'15 & Q1'16 INCREASED M-O-M AND W-O-W
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery up US$ 1.55 (3.09%) per MT month over month and US$ 0.72 (1.41%) pe ...
Sunday, 24 May 15
INDONESIA TO INDIA PANAMAX CHARTER RATES WERE RATING AT AROUND US$ 5500
COALspot.com: The freight market softened in all segments this past week.
The BDI was dropped 7.57 percent week over week and closed at 586 po ...
Friday, 22 May 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL Q3'15 SWAP FINISHED THE WEEK UP 38 CENTS TO $43.65 PER MT
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 gains week over week and lost month on month, past week.
The Q3 swap was declined US$ ...
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- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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