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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 20 July 15
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS GAIN WEEK OVER WEEK
COALspot.com: API 8 CFR South China Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery declined US$ 1.18 (2.27%) per MT month over month.
A commodity swap ...
Sunday, 19 July 15
BDI GAINED AND CROSSED 1000 MARK THIS WEEK
COALspot.com: The BDI gained and crossed 1000 mark after many months this Friday. The BDI was up almost 20 pct and closed 1048 points on 17 July 20 ...
Saturday, 18 July 15
INTERVIEW : FRANZ ESCALANTE, CHIEF OF INFORMATION SYSTEMS, MINERA CHINALCO, PERU
We are interested in the technology of Autonomous trucks, the new-generation trucks are not remote controlled, they are truly autonomous - Franz Es ...
Friday, 17 July 15
COAL PRODUCTION IN THE U.S. INCREASES SHARPLY FOR THE WEEK ENDING JULY 11
COALspot.com – United States the second largest coal producer in the world has produced approximately totaled an estimated 16.4 million short ...
Friday, 17 July 15
INDONESIAN POWER-STATION COAL SWAPS DECLINE CONTINUES THIS PAST WEEK
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week.
The Q3 swap was declined $ ...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- White Energy Company Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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