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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 17 July 15
DO CANCELLATION RIGHTS UNDER VOYAGE CHARTERPARTY SURVIVE RE-NOMINATION OF LOAD PORT? - INCE&CO
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
Do cancellation rights under voyage charterparty survive re-nomination of load port?
St Shipping & Transport Inc ...
Thursday, 16 July 15
INDONESIA'S HBA HITS ALL-TIME LOW OF $59.16 PER METRIC TON IN JULY 2015
COALspot.com - The Director General of Mineral and Coal of Indonesia revised down Indonesian coal benchmark price once again to US$ 59.16 pe ...
Thursday, 16 July 15
FOB RICHARDS BAY COAL SWAPS DECLINE W-O-W, M-O-M
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
WEEKLY SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The last few weeks have been rather strenuous for Greece and China, each for their own reasons, affecting most markets around the world. In Greece ...
Wednesday, 15 July 15
IRAN OIL RECOVERY TO TAKE YEARS, BUT COULD START IN 2016 - FITCH
Iranian crude oil production is likely to increase in 2016 but will take a number of years to reach its previous peak, Fitch Ratings says.
The ...
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- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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