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Wednesday, 27 May 15
MARKET INSIGHT - TIMOS PAPADIMITRIOU
 Earlier in the year I looked at how the market was reacting to the prolonged fall of the price of oil. Back then it was still unclear if the falling prices would influence to a great extend rig utilization but five months down the line it seems that this was indeed the case. This has inevitably reduced capacity and eventually stirred things up a little as far as remaining projects are concerned.
Based on data from the American Oil and Gas Reporter, in the US alone, the onshore rigs suffered a utilization reduction of 51%, which resulted in a massive shutdown of 926 rigs in just 5 months. On the offshore sector and looking at the numbers on a global scale, the utilization capacity decreased by 96 rigs (14%) in 6 months.
So after thousands of jobs and billions of dollars are lost, where do we stand? The barrel price as of last week has reached USD 65 per barrel. Although prices have been rising during the last couple of months, there is still a lot of uncertainty as to where we are heading. Will the price continue to rise as it usually does during the summer because of the seasonal refinery demand, or it will drop back down influenced by a stronger Dollar or by the possibility that capacity is still in excess of demand. There has being a lot of speculation in regards to whether the industry is on its way to a recovery or not. Prices are often known to rise purely on speculation.
The speculation in this case revolves around the fact that the prices now are in some ways favorable and promising enough to start investing – storage projects are a representative example of that. Furthermore, Asian demand increases, with China importing record quantities in April and on top of that the US driving season is near, which as usual increases the demand for fuel. So it seems that the sings for a recovery in the price of oil are there, but it is still too early to speak for a recovery, even a slow one.
Now in relation to the maritime industry there are questions rising in multiple areas, should prices do increase. How will bunker prices adjust? Will the offshore industry rebound? Will tanker rates be affected or not? Bunker prices, have since February risen steadily but they are nowhere close to where they were about a year ago. If oil prices increase but keep moving within a specific range, there is no reason to expect bunker prices to increase a lot more, which is translated to fairly good news especially for the bulk sector.
The offshore industry has suffered a significant blow during the last ten months. FPSO projects were halted and rigs were left unutilized. Nowadays we slowly see a few fixtures materialize, which could be perceived as a sign that maybe better days are ahead. But there is still a long way to go in order to see rigs being fixed to long term employment.
On the other hand, tankers have being enjoying fantastic rates since last year. These rates, which have been on an upward trend for more than a year, were initially driven by the increased cargo demand from emerging and developing countries coupled with manageable fleet sizes in the sector, and eventually boosted by the decline of oil prices. Currently, it seems that even with a further moderate recovery in the price of oil, demand seems to have enough momentum to keep rates at healthy levels thus not really weighing on wet market prospects for the short to medium term.
All in all oil does impact the world trade to a big degree but the straightforward effect of its price performance might not be that straightforward after all.
By Timos Papadimitriou
SnP Broker
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Ms. Eva Tzima
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 July 15
SHIPPING MARKET INSIGHT - PANOS TSILINGIRIS | INTERMODAL
In both bulk shipping sectors, there are certain, yet different, reasons and strategies to invest. In the wet, buy once you can charter-out long, w ...
Tuesday, 21 July 15
CHINA'S ENERGY COMMODITY IMPORTS DIVERGING - RICHARD SCOTT | HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Energy commodity imports into China have grown enormously over the past decade, boosting global demand for shipping capacity. But a dramatic change ...
Tuesday, 21 July 15
FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAPS EXTEND LOSS
COALspot.com: Indonesian coal swap for delivery Q3 2015 declined month on month and week over week, this past week. The swaps was lost 0.70%.
...
Tuesday, 21 July 15
Q4'15 FOB RBCT COAL SWAP DECLINES NEARLY 3.13 PER CENT MONTH OVER MONTH
COALspot.com: API4 FOB Richards Bay Coal swap for delivery Q3' 2015 declined month over month and week over week.
The Q3 swap was down US$ ...
Monday, 20 July 15
FOB NEWCASTLE COAL SWAP SEE FURTHER DECLINES
COALspot.com: API 5 FOB Newcastle Coal swap for Q3’ 2015 delivery down $ 1.32 per MT (-2.89%) month over month to US$ 44.43 per mt. The swap ...
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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